Rough Sledding Ahead for Sino-American Relations?

In the first few months of 2010, the U.S. will be selling arms to Taiwan and President Obama will meet with the Dalai Lama.  This will be a test of China’s commitment to relations with the U.S.  There is absolutely no doubt that China will react to both events with strong condemnations.  China hands, however, will be parsing words.  Already, some have noticed some daylight on the Taiwan issue.

One hint that China will limit the scope of its reaction came during Obama’s meeting with Hu in November, analysts said. Hu used the formulation “sophisticated weapons” when speaking about any possible U.S. arms sale to Taiwan. U.S. officials took that to be a reference to a tranche of F-16 fighters that Taiwan has requested but that, according to U.S. sources, will not be on Taipei’s shopping list this time.

It’s a bit reminiscent of the previous dispute over the import duties imposed by the U.S. on tires manufactured in China.  China reacted very strongly, but only verbally.  There was not policy change.  Similarly, last week, the U.S. International Trade Commission found against China on steel imports resulting in trade duties.  Strong words from China, but, so far, nothing more.

Obama was criticized for obsequiousness in his visit to China in November.  His approach is consistent with his view of international relations which might recall Teddy Roosevelt’s famous line, “Speak softly, but carry a big stick.”  It will be interesting to see how he navigates the next few months.  Don’t be surprised if there are a lot of rhetorical fireworks which dissipate very quickly, overtaken by much more consequential issues.

Or it could be the start of more hostile relations.  Time will tell.