A Lisbon Referendum in Great Britain?.

As Ireland prepares for its second vote on the Lisbon Treaty, which is designed to improve the governing structures of the European Union, the sabers are rattling in England.  The shadow Foreign Minister gave an interview to the Telegraph that makes clear his opposition to Lisbon, but thoroughly muddies the water in terms of what he, and his Conservative Party, plan to do about it.  Here’s his position:

There will be a referendum, but only if the treaty
is not ratified by all 26 other European countries before the general
election. If, however, the treaty has been approved before polling day,
then… you will just have to wait and see what happens.

I suspect he secretly hopes the treaty is ratified by the time of the next general election in Great Britain, which must happen before June of 2010.  Otherwise, the debate about Europe will consume the election and the early months of the Cameron administration.

Meanwhile, in Ireland, while the vote is tightening, the Yes vote is still favored.  It’s interesting that the division on Lisbon not the typical left/right political fight.  It appears that both the far left and the far right oppose the treaty, with support coming from the center.   A compelling argument on the left is the following, propounded by Proinsias De Rossa, Member of the European Parliament from Ireland:

“The reality is the Lisbon Treaty was negotiated at a time when the
Social Democrats were in the majority in the EU. We had 11 out of 15
members States; now we have the situation where 17 of the member States
are centre-right out of 27 so the balance is completely changed.”

So, Lisbon offers the left the opportunity to institutionalize its fading political power.  You can see the MEP’s statement in full below: